GLOBAL WARMING MAN OR MYTH ?

	Freshwater Resources

Freshwater availability is vital to civilization because it provides drinking water and water for irrigation to feed society. "Observational records and climate projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging consequences for human societies and ecosystems" is the conclusion of Bates, et al. (2008) in Climate Change and Water, a Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WG II (2007).
Bates et al. find:

• Observed warming over several decades has been linked to changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle.
• Climate model simulations for the 21st century are consistent in projecting precipitation increases in high latitudes (very likely) and parts of the tropics, and decreases in some subtropical and lower mid-latitude regions (likely).
• By the middle of the 21st century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase as a result of climate change at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics.
• Increased precipitation intensity and variability are projected to increase the risks of flooding and drought in many areas.
• Water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline in the course of the century.
• Higher water temperatures and changes in extremes, including floods and droughts, are projected to affect water quality and exacerbate many forms of water pollution.
• Globally, the negative impacts of future climate change on freshwater systems are expected to outweigh the benefits (high confidence).
• Changes in water quantity and quality due to climate change are expected to affect food availability, stability, access and utilisation.

Fig. 1 (IPCC, 2007) shows the impact of human activities on freshwater resources and their management. As one can see climate change is only one of multiple influences on water resources.



Figure 1: Impact of human activities on freshwater resources and their management In a warmer world, more water vapor can be present in the air and evaporation from the surface increases. This coupling will likely cause increased climate variability - more intense precipitation and more droughts. While temperatures are expected to increase everywhere over land and during all seasons of the year, precipitation is expected to increase globally and in many river basins, but is expected to decrease in some regions. Precipitation may increase in one season and decrease in another. These climatic changes lead to changes in all components of the global freshwater system (Ibid).
Climate-related trends of some components during the last decades have already been observed. For a number of components, such as groundwater, the lack of data makes it impossible to determine whether recent changes are due to climate change or non-climate factors. During recent decades, non-climatic drivers have exerted strong pressure on freshwater systems. This has resulted in water pollution, damming of rivers, wetland drainage, reduction in streamflow, and lowering of the groundwater table (mainly due to irrigation). In comparison, climate-related changes have been small, although this is likely to be different in the future as the climate change signal becomes more evident (Ibid).
Fig. 2 (Oram, 2010) illustrates the various components of the hydrologic cycle.



Figure 2: Various components of the hydrologic cycle. Fig. 2a (USGRP, 2009) shows the observed water-related changes during the last century in the United States.



Figure 2a: Observed water-related changes during the last century in the United States Fig. 2b (Ibid) shows the anticipated changes in the water cycle of the United States.



Figure 2b: Anticipated changes in the water cycle of the United States Fig. 3 (IPCC, 2007) shows the observed climate-related trends of the various components of the global freshwater system.



Figure 3: Observed climate-related trends of the various components of the global freshwater system. Fig. 4 (Ibid) shows examples of current vulnerabilities of freshwater resources and their management; in the background, a water stress map.



Figure 4: Examples of current vulnerabilities of freshwater resources and their management; in the background, a water stress map Fig. 5 (Bates et al., 2008) shows the anticipated changes in various components of the water cycle between the years 2080-2099 as compared to the years 1980-1999.



Figure 5: Anticipated changes in various components of the water cycle between the years 2080-2099 as compared to the years 1980-1999 Surface Waters:
Fig. 6 (IPCC, 2007) shows the mean global river runoff change until 2050 for the SRES A1B scenario from an ensemble of twenty-four climate model runs (from twelve different GCMs).



Figure 6: Effects of future climate change on long-term average annual river runoff until 2050 Almost all model runs agree that runoff change in the high latitudes of North America and Eurasia will increases 10% to 40%. With higher uncertainty, runoff can be expected to increase in the wet tropics. Prominent regions, with strong agreement between models, of decreasing runoff (by 10 to 30%) include the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western USA/northern Mexico. In general, between the late 20th century and 2050, the areas of decreased runoff expand (Ibid).
Fig. 6a (Bates et al., 2008) shows the anticipated changes in runoff between the years 2090-2099 as compared to the years 1980-1999. Changes greater than 40% relative to 1980-1999 are expected in some regions by the end of the 21st century.



Figure 6a: Anticipated changes in runoff between the years 2090-2099 as compared to the years 1980-1999 In the United States, precipitation and runoff are likely to increase in the Northeast and Midwest in winter and spring, and decrease in the West, especially the Southwest, in spring and summer as shown by Fig. 6b (USGRP, 2009).



Projected changes in annual runoff in the U.S. Climate change leads to changes in the seasonality of river flows where much winter precipitation currently falls as snow. This has been found in projections for the European Alps, the Himalayas, all of North America, the entire Russian territory, and Scandinavia and Baltic regions. The effect of seasonal changes is greatest at lower elevations (where snowfall is more marginal), and in many cases peak river flow would occur at least a month earlier. Winter flows will increase while summer flows will decrease (IPCC, 2007).
One-sixth of the Earth’s population rely on melt water from glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply. Glaciers are the source for many rivers, particularly in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya and the South-American Andes. Higher temperatures generate increased glacier melt and as these glaciers retreat due to global warming, river flows are increased in the short term, but the contribution of glacier melt will gradually decrease over the next few decades. In regions with little or no snowfall, changes in runoff are dependent much more on changes in rainfall than on changes in temperature. In the Andes, glacial melt water supports tens of millions of people during the long dry season. Many small glaciers, e.g., in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru, will disappear within the next few decades, adversely affecting people and ecosystems. The entire Hindu Kush-Himalaya ice mass has decreased in the last two decades. Hence, water supply in areas fed by glacial melt water from the Hindu Kush and Himalayas, on which hundreds of millions of people in China and India depend, will be negatively affected (Ibid).
In a recent study, Immerzeel, et al. (2010) find that climate change will reduce the contribution of glaciers to total run-off while also changing weather patterns, including rain and snowfall. Immerzeel, et al. concluded that the river flow change will range from a decrease of 19.6% for the Brahmaputra to a 9.5% increase for the Yellow River. The authors conclude that climate change will reduce water supplies enough that by 2050, declines in irrigation water are likely to reduce the number of people the region's agriculture can support by about 60 million — 4.5% of the region's present population.
Changes in lake levels are determined primarily by changes in river inflows and precipitation onto and evaporation from the lake. Impact assessments of the Great Lakes of North America show changes in water levels of between -1.38 m and +0.35 m by the end of the 21st century. It is possible that the levels in the Caspian Sea may drop by around 9 m by the end of the 21st century, due largely to increases in evaporation. Levels in Lake Victoria would initially fall as increases in evaporation offset changes in precipitation, but subsequently rise as the effects of increased precipitation overtake the effects of higher evaporation (IPCC, 2007).
Model studies show that land-use changes have a small effect on annual runoff as compared to climate change in the Rhine basin, south-east Michigan, Pennsylvania, and central Ethiopia. In other areas, however, such as south-east Australia and southern India, land-use and climate-change effects may be more similar (Ibid).
Groundwater:
The demand for groundwater is likely to increase in the future due to population increases and reduced summer river flows in melt-water dominated basins regions. Climate change will affect groundwater recharge rates, i.e., the renewable groundwater resource, and groundwater levels. However, even knowledge of current recharge and levels in both developed and developing countries is poor. There has been very little research on the impact of climate change on groundwater, including the question of how climate change will affect the relationship between surface waters and aquifers that are hydraulically connected. As a result of climate change, in many aquifers of the world the spring recharge shifts towards winter, and summer recharge declines. In high latitudes, thawing of permafrost will cause changes in groundwater level and quality. Climate change may lead to vegetation changes which also affect groundwater recharge. Also, with increased frequency and magnitude of floods, groundwater recharge may increase, in particular in semi-arid and arid areas where heavy rainfalls and floods are the major sources of groundwater recharge (Ibid).
According to the results of a global hydrological model, groundwater recharge (averaged globally) increases less than total runoff. While total runoff was computed to increase by 9% between the reference climate normal 1961 to 1990 and the 2050s, groundwater recharge increases by only 2%. For the four climate scenarios investigated, computed groundwater recharge decreases dramatically by more than 70% in north-eastern Brazil, south-west Africa and along the southern rim of the Mediterranean Sea (Figure 7). Regions with groundwater recharge increases of more than 30% by the 2050s include the Sahel, the Near East, northern China, Siberia, and the western USA (Ibid).

Figure 7: Simulated impact of climate change on long-term average annual diffuse groundwater recharge. Percentage changes of 30 year averages groundwater recharge between present-day (1961 to 1990) and the 2050s (2041 to 2070), as computed by the global hydrological model WGHM, applying four different climate change scenarios (climate scenarios computed by the climate models ECHAM4 and HadCM3), each interpreting the two IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios A2 and B2.

Climate change-linked sea level rise leads to intrusion of salt water into the fresh groundwater in coastal aquifers which adversely affects groundwater resources. Fig. 8 (USGS, 2008) illustrates a coastal freshwater aquifer.



Figure 8: Ground-water flow patterns and the zone of dispersion in an idealized, homogeneous coastal aquifer. Under natural conditions, the seaward movement of freshwater prevents saltwater from encroaching coastal aquifers, and the interface between freshwater and saltwater is maintained near the coast or far below land surface. This interface is actually a diffuse zone in which freshwater and saltwater mix, and is referred to as the zone of dispersion (or transition zone). Saltwater intrusion decreases freshwater storage in the aquifers, and, in extreme cases, can result in the abandonment of supply wells. Rising sea levels forces the zone of dispersion inland which can render freshwater wells useless thus limiting freshwater supply for the regional population (Ibid). Fig. 9 (Ibid) shows areas along the Atlantic coast where saltwater has intruded freshwater aquifers. Projected future growth in population along the coastal areas of the United States combined with sea level will likely increase stresses on coastal aquifers and on the ecosystems that depend upon freshwater discharges from these aquifers (Ibid).



Figure 9: Areas along the Atlantic coast where saltwater has intruded freshwater aquifers New York City, Philadelphia, and much of California’s Central Valley obtain some of their water from portions of rivers that are slightly upstream from the point where water is salty during droughts. If sea level rise pushes salty water upstream, then the existing water intakes might draw on salty water during dry periods (EPA, 2010). Loáiciga & Pingel (2008) modeled saltwater intrusion in two of California's most productive aquifers - Oxnard Plain aquifer in Ventura County and the Salinas Valley coastal aquifer in Monterey County. Their model showed that by 2106 saltwater had intruded into the aquifer by 1.5 km due to combination of sea level rise and well extraction (Fig. 10).



Figure 10: Saltwater intrusion front between 2006 and 2106. Floods and Drought:
A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and droughts (IPCC, 2007).
Droughts have become more common, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics, since the 1970s. It is likely that the area affected by drought has increased since the 1970s, and it is more likely than not that there is a human contribution to this trend (Ibid). Decreased land precipitation and increased temperatures are important factors that have contributed to more regions experiencing droughts as shown by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in Fig. 11 (Ibid).



Figure 11: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) The PDSI is a prominent index of drought. Red and orange areas are drier (-PDSI) than average and blue and green areas are wetter (+PDSI) than average. The smooth black curve shows decadal variations. The PDSI curve reveals widespread increasing African drought, especially in the Sahel. Note also the wetter areas, especially in eastern North and South America and northern Eurasia.

The regions where droughts have occurred seem to be determined largely by changes in sea surface temperatures, especially in the tropics, through associated changes in the atmospheric circulation and precipitation. In the western USA, diminishing snow pack and subsequent reductions in soil moisture also appear to be factors. In Australia and Europe, direct links to global warming have been inferred through the extreme nature of high temperatures and heat waves accompanying recent droughts (Bates et al., 2008)
There has been a large drying trend over Northern Hemisphere land since the mid-1950s, with widespread drying over much of Eurasia, northern Africa, Canada and Alaska. In the Southern Hemisphere, land surfaces were wet in the 1970s and relatively dry in the 1960s and 1990s, and there was a drying trend from 1974 to 1998, although trends over the entire 1948 to 2002 period were small. Decreases in land precipitation in recent decades are the main cause for the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last 2–3 decades is likely to have contributed to the drying. Globally, very dry areas (defined as land areas with a PDSI of less than -3.0) more than doubled (from ~12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to surface warming (Ibid). In the U.S. much of the Southeast and West has had reductions in precipitation and increases in drought severity and duration, especially in the Southwest (USGRP, 2009). Fig. 11a (Ibid) shows the observed drought trends since 1958.



Figure 11a: Observed drought trends since 1958. According to Dai (2010) and as described in the Climate Progess blog post titled: New study puts the ‘hell’ in Hell and High Water, global warming could lead to drought conditions worse than the 1930s Dust Bowl in many parts of the world including much of the United States. In Fig. 11b (Dai, 2010) red to pink areas are extremely dry (severe drought) conditions while blue colors indicate wet areas relative to the 1950–1979 mean. Values are based on the PDSI where -4 is considered extreme drought.



Figure 11b: Projected wet and dry regions moving toward 2100. -4 is extreme drought. By the 2030s, some regions in the world could experience severe drought conditions with PDSI values -4 to -6 in much of the central and western United States as well as several regions overseas, and -8 or lower in parts of the Mediterranean. By the end of the century, many populated areas, including parts of the United States, could face readings in the range of -8 to -10, and much of the Mediterranean could fall to -15 to -20. These values are unprecedented.
As temperatures rise, the likelihood of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow increases, especially in areas with temperatures near 0°C in autumn and spring. Snowmelt is projected to be earlier and less abundant in the melt period, and this may lead to an increased risk of droughts in snowmelt-fed basins in summer and autumn, when demand is highest.
Droughts affect rain-fed agricultural production as well as water supply for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. Some semi-arid and sub-humid regions, e.g., Australia, western USA, southern Canada, and the Sahel have suffered from more intense and multi-annual droughts (Bates et al., 2008).
The 2003 heat wave in Europe, attributable to global warming, was accompanied by annual precipitation deficits up to 300 mm. This drought contributed to the estimated 30% reduction in gross primary production of terrestrial ecosystems over Europe. Many major rivers (e.g., the Po, Rhine, Loire and Danube) were at record low levels, resulting in disruption of inland navigation, irrigation and power plant cooling. The extreme glacier melt in the Alps prevented even lower flows of the Danube and Rhine Rivers (Ibid).
Models agree in their estimates that by the 2070s, a 100-year drought of today’s magnitude would return, on average, more frequently than every 10 years in parts of Spain and Portugal, western France, the Vistula Basin in Poland, and western Turkey as shown in Fig. 12 (IPCC, 2007).



Figure 12: Increased European drought by 2070 Globally, the number of great inland flood catastrophes during 1996–2005 was twice as large, per decade, as between 1950 and 1980, while related economic losses increased by a factor of five. Socio-economic factors such as economic growth, increases in population and in the wealth concentrated in vulnerable areas, and land-use change were significant contributors. Floods have been the most reported natural disaster events in many regions, affecting 140 million people per year on average. In Bangladesh, during the 1998 flood, about 70% of the country’s area was inundated (compared to an average value of 20–25%). Because flood damages have grown more rapidly than population or economic growth, other factors must be considered, including climate change. The weight of observational evidence indicates an ongoing acceleration of the water cycle. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased, consistent with both warming and observed increases in atmospheric water vapor (Ibid).
The flooded area in Bangladesh is projected to increase at least by 23-29% with a global temperature rise of 2^oC. Up to 20% of the world’s population live in river basins that are likely to be affected by increased flood hazard by the 2080s in the course of global warming (Ibid).
Fig. 13 (Bates et al., 2008) shows possible impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme precipitation-related weather and climate events.



Figure 13: Possible impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme precipitation-related weather and climate events In the past century, averaged over the United States, total precipitation has increased by about seven percent, while the heaviest one percent of rain events increased by nearly 20 percent. This has been especially true in the Northeast, where the annual number of days with very heavy precipitation has increased most in the past 50 years, as shown By Fig. 13a (USGRP, 2009). Extended periods of heavy precipitation have also been increasing over the past century, most notably in the past two to three decades in the United States (Ibid)



Figure 13a: Increases in heavy precipitation in the U.S. Zhang et al. (2007), IPCC (2007), and Held and Soden (2006) conclude that global warming due to human activities is increasing the severity of drought in areas that already have drought and causing more rainfall in areas that are already wet.
Zhang et al. considered three groups of global climate model simulations and compared those simulations to the observed precipitation between 70^o north and 40^o south as shown in Figure 14 below.

• ANT denoted simulations included estimates of historical ANThropogenic (human) forcing only which included greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols.
• NAT4 denoted simulations included just NATural external forcings only.
• ALL denoted simulations include BOTH of the above – natural and human forcing.

Figure 14: Observed precipitation vs. various simulations. This clearly shows that the ALL simulations (a and d) do a much better job of matching observed precipitation trends than either ANT (b and e) or NAT (c and f) alone. In fact, the correlations: ALL = 0.83, ANT = 0.69 and NAT4 = 0.02. It is for this reason that Zhang et al. (2007) conclude that changes in precipitation trends cannot be explained by natural forcing only and it certainly parallels what the IPCC WGI and WGII reports suggest.



Figure 15: Changes in observed vs. simulated precipitation anomalies. Fig. 15 shows that the models do not predict the mid-latitude trends at all. Regional precipitation pattern predictions are NOT a strong suit of the models which modelers have stated. What this image does show however, is that areas of green and yellow show where the model trends match those of the observed trends and the models do a decent job of forecasting the correct trends in most regions.
Water Quality:
Higher water temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, and longer periods of low flows are projected to exacerbate many forms of water pollution, including sediments, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, pathogens, pesticides, salt and thermal pollution. This will promote harmful algal blooms and increase the bacterial and fungal content of the water. This will, in turn, impact ecosystems, human health, and the reliability and operating costs of water systems (Bates et al., 2008).
More intense rainfall will lead to an increase in suspended solids (turbidity) in lakes and reservoirs due to soil erosion and pollutants will increase. The projected increase in precipitation will enhanced transport of pathogens and other dissolved pollutants (e.g., pesticides) to surface waters and groundwater; and in increased erosion, which in turn leads to the mobilization of adsorbed pollutants such as phosphorus and heavy metals. In addition, more frequent heavy rainfall events will overload the capacity of sewer systems and water and wastewater treatment plants more often. An increased occurrence of low flows will lead to higher pollutant concentrations, including pathogens. In areas with overall decreased runoff (e.g., in many semi-arid areas), water quality deterioration will be even worse (Ibid).
Water-borne diseases will rise with increases in extreme rainfall. In regions suffering from droughts, a greater incidence of diarrhoeal and other water-related diseases will mirror the deterioration in water quality (IPCC, 2007).
Impacts of climate change on costs & other socio-economic aspects of freshwater:
People living in snowmelt-fed basins experiencing decreasing snow storage in winter may be negatively affected by decreased river flows in the summer and autumn. The Rhine, for example, might suffer from a reduction of summer low flows of 5–12% by the 2050s, which will negatively affect water supply, particularly for thermal power plants (Ibid). The Rio Santo in Peru depends almost entirely for its dry-season runoff on glacial melt. This river supports 5% of Peru's electricity and much of its agriculture. More than a million people in the coastal cities of Chimbote and Trujillo depend on this river for their drinking water. By 2050 the glaciers that feed the Rio Santo will have shrunk by 40% to 60%. Lima, home to more than eight million people, will also experience drastic water shortages as the climate warms and glaciers retreat to higher and higher elevations (Lynas, 2008). In western China, earlier spring snowmelt and declining glaciers are likely to reduce water availability for irrigated agriculture (Bates et al., 2008).
According to the Water Security Risk Index, released by Maplecroft (2010), a firm specialising in corporate risk intelligence, Somalia (1), Mauritania (2), Sudan (3), Niger (4), Iraq (5), Uzbekistan (6), Pakistan (7), Egypt (8), Turkmenistan (9) and Syria (10) are the countries with the least secure supplies of water (Fig. 16).



Figure 16: Water Security Risk Index 2010 The report states that countries in the extreme risk category, including the emerging economies of Pakistan, Egypt and Uzbekistan, are already experiencing internal and cross-border tensions due to limited water resources. Furthermore, as the global climate changes, water stress is predicted to become more acute in these regions and has the potential to threaten stability. For more information view the full report.
As reported in The Sunday Times story (June, 2010), War clouds gather as nations demand a piece of the Nile, countries along the Nile River have signed an agreement to possess more of the water from that river. Egypt is already sabre rattling and the Foreign Minister has described the Nile waters as a matter of national security and a “red line” not to be crossed. Some Egyptian newspapers even discussed tactics that would prove effective if war erupts. Boutros Boutros Ghali, Egypt’s former Foreign Minister who later became the UN Secretary-General, warned: “The next war in our region will be over water, not politics.”
Iraq, Syria, and Turkey may fight over Turkey’s control of the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, further destabilizing the fragile Middle East. Arab countries may increase their nuclear capabilities to desalinate water and, in doing so, proliferate nuclear weapons to protect their dwindling resources (Dyer, 2008). Rivers fed by glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow) will initially flood due to rapid glacial melt but will eventually dwindle thus causing water shortages to billions of people during summer when needed most. This will lead to food shortages and cross-border conflicts between NUCLEAR nations such as China, India, and Pakistan (Ibid). Will India redirect water away from Pakistan to feed its own people? Will Pakistan use nukes to rest this resource back?
Many locations in the United States are already in conflict over water resources and these conflicts are projected to increase toward the year 2025 as shown in Fig. 17 (USGRP, 2009).



Figure 17: Potential water conflicts in the U.S. by 2025. For an aquifer in Texas, the net income of farmers is projected to decrease by 16–30% by the 2030s and by 30–45% by the 2090s due to decreased irrigation water supply and increased irrigation water demand (Bates et al., 2008).
If freshwater supply has to be replaced by desalinated water due to climate change, then the cost of climate change includes the average cost of desalination, which is currently around US$1.00/m³ for seawater and US$0.60/m³ for brackish water. The cost for freshwater chlorination is approximately US$0.02/m³. In densely populated coastal areas of Egypt, China, Bangladesh, India and south-east Asia, desalination costs may be prohibitive.
Average annual direct flood damage for three Australian drainage basins was projected to increase four- to ten-fold under doubled CO₂ conditions. In selected U.S. cities, the mean and standard deviation of flood damage are projected to increase by more than 140% if the mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation increase by 13.5%. In the metro Boston area in the north-eastern USA, both the number of properties damaged by floods and the overall cost of flood damage may double by 2100, relative to what might be expected if there was no climate change.
Climate-change is likely to alter river flows which in turn will impact hydropower generation. Hydropower impacts for Europe have been estimated using a macro-scale hydrological model. The results indicate that by the 2070s the electricity production potential of hydropower plants existing at the end of the 20th century will increase (assuming IS92a emissions) by 15–30% in Scandinavia and northern Russia, where currently between 19% (Finland) and almost 100% (Norway) of electricity is produced by hydropower. Decreases of 20–50% and more are found for Portugal, Spain, Ukraine and Bulgaria, where currently between 10% (Ukraine, Bulgaria) and 39% of the electricity is produced by hydropower. For the whole of Europe (with a 20% hydropower fraction), hydropower potential is projected to decrease by 7–12% by the 2070s (Ibid).
Fig. 18 (Ibid) is and illustrative map of future climate change impacts related to freshwater which threaten the sustainable development of the affected regions.



Figure 18: Illustrative map of future climate change impacts related to freshwater which threaten the sustainable development of the affected regions Fig. 19 (USGRP, 2009) highlights the water-related impacts by sector in the United States.



Figure 19: Highlights of water impacts in the U.S. by sector. Asia is in the grip of a water crisis that could set back the region's robust economic growth if left unresolved, according to a top Asian Development Bank (ADB) official, Arjun Thapan, special adviser to ADB president Harukiko Kuroda on water and infrastructure issues. Thapan stated "We believe that the estimate recently made about Asia having a 40 percent gap between demand and supply by 2030 is a reasonable estimate." With 80 percent of Asia's water used to irrigate agricultural lands, the shortage could have serious implications for food supplies, he warned. Between 10 and 15 percent of Asia's water is consumed by industry. Thapan said that the efficiency of water usage in agriculture and industry has improved by only one percent a year since 1990. Thapan said that if left unresolved, the water crisis "has the potential of slowing down" Asian growth. Another problem is the volume of used water in Asia that remains largely untreated, leading to massive pollution of water sources like rivers. Of the 412 rivers in the Philippines, 50 are biologically dead, he said. Between $2 billion and $2.5 billion dollars is needed to clean up Manila Bay and Pasig River in Manila alone. In China, India, and the Philippines, among other Asian countries, the total availability of water per person per year has fallen below 1,700 cubic metres -- the global threshold for water stress, a situation where water demand exceeds the available amount during a certain period. About 50 percent of China's Yellow River is so polluted it cannot support agriculture, and over 50 percent of the surface water in the country's Hai river basin is not fit for any use, Thapan said (Abbugao, 2010).

Where is global warming going ?

UP government decides to speed up work for wildlife night park

LUCKNOW: With an aim to give fillip to tourism industry in the state, the Uttar Pradesh government on Wednesday decided to speed up the process of developing a wildlife night park at Greater Noida through PPP mode.

At a high-level meeting, chief minister Minister Akhilesh Yadav decided to consider a bid invitation process for the 'Night Safari' project soon.

The proposed world-class Night Safari, with closed environment and controlled conditions, will be a first-of-its kind in India and second in Asia after Singapore, official sources said.

UP chief secretary Javed Usmani will head a committee that will monitor the progress of this project to ensure its time-bound implementation, they said, adding that the Greater Noida Authority will conduct the bidding process.

Apart from Usmani, Infrastructure and Industrial Development Commissioner Anil K Gupta, Principal Secretaries of Tourism, Forest and Housing, the CEO of Greater Noida, the meeting was also attended by Acting High Commissioner of Singapore, Jonathan Tow.

Gupta said the state government will invite bids for selection of developer for this one-of-its-kind safari.

"To be developed under PPP mode, the state government equity will be in the form of land, while the investment will be made by the developer," he added.

About possible hindrances due to land issues, Gupta said that the already earmarked land of around 102 hectares did not require land use change because it is already approved for "recreational green".

"The ambitious nocturnal zoo project has received statutory approvals from the Central Zoo Authority and the Supreme Court. No commercial construction or housing will be allowed within the safari area, which is proposed to encompass outdoor natural setting for 40 percent animals of Indian sub-continent and 60 percent animals from outside," he added.

The Night Safari project was first initiated in the previous Mulayam Singh Yadav regime in 2005 with a view to promote tourism, environment conservation, afforestation and generate employment for local youths.

The respectful reality of India is represented by the sincerity, kindness and dedication of its people.

Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA)

Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA)

When a business enterprise imports goods from other countries, exports its products to them or makes investments abroad, it deals in foreign exchange. Foreign exchange means 'foreign currency' and includes:- (i) deposits, credits and balances payable in any foreign currency; (ii) drafts, travellers' cheques, letters of credit or bills of exchange, expressed or drawn in Indian currency but payable in any foreign currency; and (iii) drafts, travellers' cheques, letters of credit or bills of exchange drawn by banks, institutions or persons outside India, but payable in Indian currency. In India, all transactions that include foreign exchange were regulated by Foreign Exchange Regulations Act (FERA),1973. The main objective of FERA was conservation and proper utilisation of the foreign exchange resources of the country. It also sought to control certain aspects of the conduct of business outside the country by Indian companies and in India by foreign companies. It was a criminal legislation which meant that its violation would lead to imprisonment and payment of heavy fine. It had many restrictive clauses which deterred foreign investments. In the light of economic reforms and the liberalised scenario, FERA was replaced by a new Act called the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA),1999.The Act applies to all branches, offices and agencies outside India, owned or controlled by a person resident in India. FEMA emerged as an investor friendly legislation which is purely a civil legislation in the sense that its violation implies only payment of monetary penalties and fines. However, under it, a person will be liable to civil imprisonment only if he does not pay the prescribed fine within 90 days from the date of notice but that too happens after formalities of show cause notice and personal hearing. FEMA also provides for a two year sunset clause for offences committed under FERA which may be taken as the transition period granted for moving from one 'harsh' law to the other 'industry friendly' legislation. Broadly,the objectives of FEMA are: (i) To facilitate external trade and payments; and (ii) To promote the orderly development and maintenance of foreign exchange market. The Act has assigned an important role to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the administration of FEMA. The rules,regulations and norms pertaining to several sections of the Act are laid down by the Reserve Bank of India, in consultation with the Central Government. The Act requires the Central Government to appoint as many officers of the Central Government as Adjudicating Authorities for holding inquiries pertaining to contravention of the Act. There is also a provision for appointing one or more Special Directors (Appeals) to hear appeals against the order of the Adjudicating authorities. The Central Government also establish an Appellate Tribunal for Foreign Exchange to hear appeals against the orders of the Adjudicating Authorities and the Special Director (Appeals). The FEMA provides for the establishment, by the Central Government, of a Director of Enforcement with a Director and such other officers or class of officers as it thinks fit for taking up for investigation of the contraventions under this Act. FEMA permits only authorised person to deal in foreign exchange or foreign security. Such an authorised person, under the Act, means authorised dealer,money changer, off-shore banking unit or any other person for the time being authorised by Reserve Bank. The Act thus prohibits any person who:- Deal in or transfer any foreign exchange or foreign security to any person not being an authorized person; Make any payment to or for the credit of any person resident outside India in any manner; Receive otherwise through an authorized person, any payment by order or on behalf of any person resident outside India in any manner; Enter into any financial transaction in India as consideration for or in association with acquisition or creation or transfer of a right to acquire, any asset outside India by any person is resident in India which acquire, hold, own, possess or transfer any foreign exchange, foreign security or any immovable property situated outside India. The Act deals with two types of foreign exchange transactions.

Prevention Of Money Laundering Act: Critical Analysis

Prevention Of Money Laundering Act: Critical Analysis

Introduction:-
Money laundering involves disguising financial assets so that they can be used without detection of the illegal activity that let to its production. Through the process of “money laundering” a person converts illegal money into a legal entity. Whosoever directly or indirectly attempts to indulge or knowingly assists or knowingly is a party or is actually involved in any process or activity connected with the proceeds of crime and projecting it as untainted property shall be held guilty of the offence of money laundering.
The Schedule to the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (henceforth, PMLA), 2002, lists some of the offences under the following Legislations:
Offences under the India Penal Code (part A) - eg. Waging or attempting to wage war, or abetting waging of war against the Government of India, Conspiring to commit offences punishable by s.121 against the state
1. Offences under the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances Act, 1985- eg. Contravention in relation to opium poppy and opium.
2. Offences under India Penal Code (part B) - eg. Murder, kidnapping for ransom, counterfeiting currency notes or bank notes.
3. Offences under the Arms Act, 1959- eg. Knowingly purchasing arms from unlicensed person not entitled to purchase the same.
4. Offences under the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972- eg. Contravention of provisions of s.48 relating to purchase of animals etc by license.
5. Offence under the Immoral Traffic (Prevention) Act, 1956- eg. Seducing or soliciting for purpose of prostitution.
6. Offences under the Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988- eg. Taking gratification for exercise of personal influence, with public servant
The innumerate under the afore stated Acts generate huge sums. The launderer converts these sums into untainted money by investing them into shares or banks and thereby converts the essential character of the money.
Genesis:-
The UN General Assembly, in its Special Session (1999), came up with a political declaration that required the Member-States to adopt money laundering legislation and programme. Moreover with the changed economic scenario and the dynamic process of liberalization laws like Foreign Exchange Management Bill in place of earlier FERA was felt to be much static and harsh. As is said in Latin Summum Jus Suma Injuria (too much legislation, too much of regulations create problems for a man) hence it was felt that a new law was requied to curtail the powers of launderers. Accordingly on the Recommendations of the Standing Committee on Finance on 4th March, 1999 the Bill was presented in the Lok Sabha and the Act was incorporated and enacted on 17th January, 2003.
Significance:-
The PMLA was a very peculiar legislation. The Civil Procedure Code, 1908 and the Criminal Procedure Code, 1973 were clubbed together. Moreover, the Act had hit the source of illegal money itself.
Enactment:-
With the PMLA coming into force, banks, financial institutions and financial intermediaries will have to mandatorily report to Government all suspicious transactions and those over Rs.10 Lakh.
As per the provisions of the Act, every banking company, financial institution and intermediary needs to maintain a record of all transactions, the nature and value of which is being prescribed in the rules.
Financial institutions, including chit funds, cooperative banks and intermediaries like stock brokers, share transfer agents, underwriters and investment advisers were to be registered with SEBI.
The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU-IND) was set up as a multi-disciplinary unit for establishing links between suspicious or unusual financial transactions and criminal activities.
Legislations In Consonance With PMLA :-
1. Banking Regulation Act, 1949.
2. Chit Funds Act, 1982.
3. deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation Act, 1961
4. NABARD Act, 1981.
5. National Housing Bank Act, 1987.
6. Reserve Bank of India Act,1934.
7. Securities and Exchange Board of India act,1992.
International Support System:-
It stands highly imperative to exchange information at an international level in order to make the enforcement of a law efficient. FIUs therefore have the ability to exchange financial information that stands helpful to follow the financial trail in respect to investigation and enforcement of law in activities related to terrorism and uncovering financial assets.
A] FATF: - The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is an inter-governmental body which sets standards, and develops and promotes policies to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. The Force has provided forty Recommendations and Nine Special Recommendations that provide a complete set of counter measures against money laundering. These Recommendations have been recognized, endorsed and adopted by many international bodies as the international standards for combating Money Laundering.
B] Egmont Group: - The Egmont Group serves as an international network fostering improved communication and interaction among FIUs. Egmont Group is named after the venue in Brussels where the first such meeting of FIU was held in June, 1995. The goal of the Group is to provide a platform for FIUs around the world to improve support to their respective governments in the fight against money laundering terrorist financing and other financial crimes.
C] Asia/Pacific Group: - The Asia/Pacific Group on money laundering (APG) was officially established as an autonomous regional anti-money laundering body in February, 1997 at the Fourth Asia/Pacific Money Laundering Symposium in Bangkok, Thailand. The purpose of APG is to facilitate the adoption, implementation and enforcement of internationally accepted anti-money laundering and anti terrorist financing standards set out in the recommendations of the FATF. The APG undertakes studies of methods and trends of money laundering and the financing of terrorism in Asia/Pacific region. It is a voluntary and co-operation international body established by agreement among its members and is autonomous.
Why Amend The Anti-Money Laundering Act:-
In the recent years there has been a sudden upsurge in organized crimes and terrorist activities. Like any other activity even these anti-social activities need financial support. This financial support is provided through illegal money which is laundered in economy of a country.
Money laundering has recently gained urgency of attention due to its links with terrorist activities.
RBI, SEBI and IRDA are under the purview of PMLA. It allows search and seizure of suspected properties by officials and stipulates punishment of minimum three years’ imprisonment for the Guilty.
Money laundering can be checked by monitoring illegal forex transactions, real estate, gems and jewellery and high value purchases.
In India, however, PMLA regulates only banking companies, financial institutions and intermediaries to maintain records, furnish information and verify identity of the customers. It does not deal with tapping of information within the ambit of informal economy as in case of forex transactions, because lot of dealing in this avenue is done through informal channels.
The PMLA makes it illegal to enter into a transaction related to funds derived from criminal activities as also to possess or transfer such funds.
Financial institutions and intermediaries registered with SEBI are required to furnish to the income-tax authorities, details of all transactions also need to be furnished.
However, this task of furnishing information and maintaining records is indeed a titanic one. Infrasoft Technologies Ltd. has launched OMNI Enterprise, anti-money laundering software that offers reporting and query capabilities. This software is widely used by banks in UK.
In 2000, black money was estimated to account for more than 40% of Indian’s GDP (approximately $150 billion). The IMF estimates the global volume of money laundering to be somewhere between $600 billion to $1.8 trillion a year. With such statistics, in India, there are absolutely no estimates regarding spending on anti money laundering measures by banks and financial institutions. Whereas, in USA, the collective spending by banking, insurance and fund management companies on anti money laundering measures is estimates to be $ 10.9 billion between 2003 and 2005.
With PMLA in force it is very crucial for the Banks to find AML software to check, identify and report suspicious transactions regularly. Failure to comply with this demand would result in losing business and fighting legal battles.
Despite of all the afore stated problems, Infrasoft OMNI AML software has found no takers. The major part of the blame for not making use of the software is , however, shelved on the shoulders of strict and static RBI Rules.
It should be realized that PMLA is not a one-time legislation. The Act was amended to resolve the technicalities. India has only made amendments in respect to 11 out of 20 categories prescribed by FATF. This clearly means that amendments are required to be made in other categories as well particularly enclosing within its scope- terrorism financing, smuggling, piracy etc.- to cope with the International Standards. Without which the India banks would get paralyzed in developed nations.
Apart from the banking and other financial institutions and intermediaries the Act also extends upon the working of International Payment gateways such as Visa and Mastercard along with money transfer providers. However, it is strongly felt that PMLA should incorporate within its ambit the casinos, because a huge amount of money, in form of informal transactions, is being operated upon through such places.
Conclusion:-
The menace of money laundering is highly diabolical in nature. It hits not only at the root of a country’s financial structure but also kills its social structure by financing anti-social activities. It is as a matter of great grief that despite of having innumerable enactments and legislation, India is still under the vigilance of the Interpol because of her relaxed attitude towards the threat posed by money laundering. Hence, it is extremely important to catch hold of the growing threat of money laundering by legislating and implementing amendments in the present law of Anti- money Laundering.

ISO 15686-service life planning.

ISO 15686 is the in development ISO standard dealing with service life planning. It is a decision process which addresses the development of the service life of a building component, building or other constructed work like a bridge or tunnel. Its approach is to ensure a proposed design life has a structured response in establishing its service life normally from a reference or estimated service life framework. Then in turn secure a life-cycle cost profile (or Whole-life cost when called for) whilst addressing environmental factors like life cycle assessment and service life care and end of life considerations including obsolescence and embodied energy recovery. Service life planning is increasingly being linked with sustainable development and wholelife value.

The objective of service life planning is to provide reasonable assurance that the estimated service life of a new building on a specific site, with planned maintenance, will be at least as long as the design. Service life planning facilitates the making of well-informed decisions regarding value engineering, cost planning, maintenance planning, and environmental impact. As service life cannot be estimated precisely, the objective requires the making of an appropriately reliable estimate of the service life of the building using available knowledge relating to the service life of each material, component, assembly, and system that is to be used in the building.

If the estimated service life of any of these is likely to be less than the design life of the building, a decision should be made as to whether maintenance, repair, or replacement could ensure that its essential functions could be adequately maintained. To assist with specification and design, and avoidance of obsolescence and waste, service life planning may include projections of the needs for, and timing of replacement and end of life recovery.

15686 for service life planning is being prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 59, Building construction - Subcommittee SC 14, Design life.

In Great Britain, the new British Standard BS ISO 15686-5:2008 Buildings and constructed assets. Service life planning is currently being launched (September 2008). The life cycle costing standard and the additional Standardized method of life cycle costing for construction (SMLCC) provide an in-depth guide to life cycle costing, an area of increasing importance. The BSI explains that "the UK building industry recognizes that life cycle costing (LCC) is necessary and important, but confusion exists about the best method to realise the economic and environmental benefits of such costing".

Product life-cycle management (marketing)

Product life-cycle management (or PLCM) is the succession of strategies used by business management as a product goes through its life-cycle. The conditions in which a product is sold (advertising, saturation) changes over time and must be managed as it moves through its succession of stages.
Product life-cycle (PLC) Like human beings, products also have an arc. From birth to death, human beings pass through various stages e.g. birth, growth, maturity, decline and death. A similar life-cycle is seen in the case of products. The product life cycle goes through multiple phases, involves many professional disciplines, and requires many skills, tools and processes. Product life cycle (PLC) has to do with the life of a product in the market with respect to business/commercial costs and sales measures. To say that a product has a life cycle is to assert three things:

• Products have a limited life,
• Product sales pass through distinct stages, each posing different challenges, opportunities, and problems to the seller,
• Products require different marketing, financing, manufacturing, purchasing, and human resource strategies in each life cycle stage.

The four main stages of a product's life cycle and the accompanying characteristics are:

Stage	Characteristics
1. Market introduction stage	costs are very high slow sales volumes to start little or no competition demand has to be created customers have to be prompted to try the product makes no money at this stage
2. Growth stage	costs reduced due to economies of scale sales volume increases significantly profitability begins to rise public awareness increases competition begins to increase with a few new players in establishing market increased competition leads to price decreases
3. Maturity stage	costs are lowered as a result of production volumes increasing and experience curve effects sales volume peaks and market saturation is reached increase in competitors entering the market prices tend to drop due to the proliferation of competing products brand differentiation and feature diversification is emphasized to maintain or increase market share Industrial profits go down
4. Saturation and decline stage	costs become counter-optimal sales volume decline prices, profitability diminish profit becomes more a challenge of production/distribution efficiency than increased sales

A life-cycle assessment (LCA, also known as life-cycle analysis, ecobalance, and cradle-to-grave analysis)

A life-cycle assessment (LCA, also known as life-cycle analysis, ecobalance, and cradle-to-grave analysis)is a technique to assess environmental impacts associated with all the stages of a product's life from-cradle-to-grave (i.e., from raw material extraction through materials processing, manufacture, distribution, use, repair and maintenance, and disposal or recycling). LCA’s can help avoid a narrow outlook on environmental concerns by:

• Compiling an inventory of relevant energy and material inputs and environmental releases;
• Evaluating the potential impacts associated with identified inputs and releases;
• Interpreting the results to help you make a more informed decision.^[2]

Contents 1 Goals and purpose 2 Four main phases 2.1 Goal and scope 2.2 Life cycle inventory 2.3 Life cycle impact assessment 2.4 Interpretation 2.4.1 Reference test 3 LCA tools and uses 4 Data analysis 5 Variants 5.1 Cradle-to-grave 5.2 Cradle-to-gate 5.3 Cradle-to-cradle or open loop production 5.4 Gate-to-gate 5.5 Well-to-wheel 5.6 Economic input–output life cycle assessment 5.7 Ecologically-based LCA 6 Life cycle energy analysis 6.1 Energy production 6.2 Energy recovery 6.3 Criticism 7 Critiques 7.1 Dynamic life cycle assessment 8 See also 9 References 10 Further reading 11 External links

Goals and purpose

The goal of LCA is to compare the full range of environmental effects assignable to products and services in order to improve processes, support policy and provide a sound basis for informed decisions.

The term life cycle refers to the notion that a fair, holistic assessment requires the assessment of raw-material production, manufacture, distribution, use and disposal including all intervening transportation steps necessary or caused by the product's existence.

There are two main types of LCA. Attributional LCAs seek to establish the burdens associated with the production and use of a product, or with a specific service or process, at a point in time (typically the recent past). Consequential LCAs seek to identify the environmental consequences of a decision or a proposed change in a system under study (oriented to the future), which means that market and economic implications of a decision may have to be taken into account. Social LCA is under development^[3] as a different approach to life cycle thinking intended to assess social implications or potential impacts. Social LCA should be considered as an approach that is complementary to environmental LCA.

The procedures of life cycle assessment (LCA) are part of the ISO 14000 environmental management standards: in ISO 14040:2006 and 14044:2006. (ISO 14044 replaced earlier versions of ISO 14041 to ISO 14043.)

Four main phases

According to the ISO 14040^[4] and 14044^[5] standards, a Life Cycle Assessment is carried out in four distinct phases as illustrated in the figure shown to the right. The phases are often interdependent in that the results of one phase will inform how other phases are completed.

Goal and scope

An LCA starts with an explicit statement of the goal and scope of the study, which sets out the context of the study and explains how and to whom the results are to be communicated. This is a key step and the ISO standards require that the goal and scope of an LCA be clearly defined and consistent with the intended application. The goal and scope document therefore includes technical details that guide subsequent work:

• the functional unit, which defines what precisely is being studied and quantifies the service delivered by the product system, providing a reference to which the inputs and outputs can be related;
• the system boundaries;
• any assumptions and limitations;
• the allocation methods used to partition the environmental load of a process when several products or functions share the same process; and
• the impact categories chosen.

Life cycle inventory

Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) analysis involves creating an inventory of flows from and to nature for a product system. Inventory flows include inputs of water, energy, and raw materials, and releases to air, land, and water. To develop the inventory, a flow model of the technical system is constructed using data on inputs and outputs. The flow model is typically illustrated with a flow chart that includes the activities that are going to be assessed in the relevant supply chain and gives a clear picture of the technical system boundaries. The input and output data needed for the construction of the model are collected for all activities within the system boundary, including from the supply chain (referred to as inputs from the technosphere).

The data must be related to the functional unit defined in the goal and scope definition. Data can be presented in tables and some interpretations can be made already at this stage. The results of the inventory is an LCI which provides information about all inputs and outputs in the form of elementary flow to and from the environment from all the unit processes involved in the study.

Inventory flows can number in the hundreds depending on the system boundary. For product LCAs at either the generic (i.e., representative industry averages) or brand-specific level, that data is typically collected through survey questionnaires. At an industry level, care has to be taken to ensure that questionnaires are completed by a representative sample of producers, leaning toward neither the best nor the worst, and fully representing any regional differences due to energy use, material sourcing or other factors. The questionnaires cover the full range of inputs and outputs, typically aiming to account for 99% of the mass of a product, 99% of the energy used in its production and any environmentally sensitive flows, even if they fall within the 1% level of inputs.

One area where data access is likely to be difficult is flows from the technosphere. Those completing a questionnaire will be able to specify how much of a given input they use from supply chain sources, but they will not usually have access to data concerning inputs and outputs for those production processes. The entity undertaking the LCA must then turn to secondary sources if it does not already have that data from its own previous studies. National databases or data sets that come with LCA-practitioner tools, or that can be readily accessed, are the usual sources for that information. Care must then be taken to ensure that the secondary data source properly reflects regional or national conditions.

Life cycle impact assessment

Inventory analysis is followed by impact assessment. This phase of LCA is aimed at evaluating the significance of potential environmental impacts based on the LCI flow results. Classical life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) consists of the following mandatory elements:

• selection of impact categories, category indicators, and characterization models;
• the classification stage, where the inventory parameters are sorted and assigned to specific impact categories; and
• impact measurement, where the categorized LCI flows are characterized, using one of many possible LCIA methodologies, into common equivalence units that are then summed to provide an overall impact category total.

In many LCAs, characterization concludes the LCIA analysis; this is also the last compulsory stage according to ISO 14044:2006. However, in addition to the above mandatory LCIA steps, other optional LCIA elements – normalization, grouping, and weighting – may be conducted depending on the goal and scope of the LCA study. In normalization, the results of the impact categories from the study are usually compared with the total impacts in the region of interest, the U.S. for example. Grouping consists of sorting and possibly ranking the impact categories. During weighting, the different environmental impacts are weighted relative to each other so that they can then be summed to get a single number for the total environmental impact. ISO 14044:2006 generally advises against weighting, stating that “weighting, shall not be used in LCA studies intended to be used in comparative assertions intended to be disclosed to the public”. This advice is often ignored, resulting in comparisons that can reflect a high degree of subjectivity as a result of weighting.^{[citation needed]}

Interpretation

Life Cycle Interpretation is a systematic technique to identify, quantify, check, and evaluate information from the results of the life cycle inventory and/or the life cycle impact assessment. The results from the inventory analysis and impact assessment are summarized during the interpretation phase. The outcome of the interpretation phase is a set of conclusions and recommendations for the study. According to ISO 14040:2006, the interpretation should include:

• identification of significant issues based on the results of the LCI and LCIA phases of an LCA;
• evaluation of the study considering completeness, sensitivity and consistency checks; and
• conclusions, limitations and recommendations.

A key purpose of performing life cycle interpretation is to determine the level of confidence in the final results and communicate them in a fair, complete, and accurate manner. Interpreting the results of an LCA is not as simple as "3 is better than 2, therefore Alternative A is the best choice"! Interpreting the results of an LCA starts with understanding the accuracy of the results, and ensuring they meet the goal of the study. This is accomplished by identifying the data elements that contribute significantly to each impact category, evaluating the sensitivity of these significant data elements, assessing the completeness and consistency of the study, and drawing conclusions and recommendations based on a clear understanding of how the LCA was conducted and the results were developed.

Reference test

More specifically, the best alternative is the one that the LCA shows to have the least cradle-to-grave environmental negative impact on land, sea, and air resources.^[6]

LCA tools and uses

There are two basic types of LCA tools:

• dedicated software packages intended for practitioners; and
• tools with the LCA in the background intended for people who want LCA-based results without have to actually develop the LCA data and impact measures.

In the former category, the principal tools are GaBi Software, developed by PE International, SimaPro, developed by PRé Consultants, Quantis SUITE 2.0, developed by Quantis International and umberto, developed by ifu Hamburg GmbH, and web-based solutions include Earthster and LinkCycle. In the second category, different tools operate at different levels. At the product level, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) makes its BEES (Building for Environmental and Economic Sustainability) tool freely available, Solidworks CAD software (Dassault Systèmes) presents LCA-based environmental information to the user through an add-on called SustainabilityXpress, and PTC’s Windchill Product Analytics makes LCA results an integral part of product development systems.^[7] At the whole building design level, different tools are available in different parts of the world. For example, the ATHENA® Impact Estimator for Buildings is capable of modeling 95% of the building stock in North America, Envest has been developed by the Building Research Establishment to meet UK needs, and EcoQuantum is available in the Netherlands. For the Netherlands, extensive databases (open access) are available on the so called eco-costs and carbon footprint of buildings and its components, see winket. The European Council of Construction Economists is planning to develop such open source databases for other European countries as well. At a building assembly level (e.g., exterior walls) the free ATHENA® EcoCalculator for Assemblies is an example of a tool that serves North America and the Whole Building Design Guide is an example of a tool applicable to the UK.

Based on a survey of LCA practitioners carried out in 2006^[8] LCA is mostly used to support business strategy (18%) and R&D (18%), as input to product or process design (15%), in education (13%) and for labeling or product declarations (11%).

Major corporations all over the world are either undertaking LCA in house or commissioning studies, while governments support the development of national databases to support LCA. Of particular note is the growing use of LCA for ISO Type III labels called Environmental Product Declarations, defined as "quantified environmental data for a product with pre-set categories of parameters based on the ISO 14040 series of standards, but not excluding additional environmental information".^[9][10] These third-party certified LCA-based labels provide an increasingly important basis for assessing the relative environmental merits of competing products. Third-party certification plays a major role in today's industry. Independent certification can show a company's dedication to safer and environmental friendlier products to customers and NGOs.^[11]

LCA also has major roles in environmental impact assessment, integrated waste management and pollution studies.

Data analysis

A life cycle analysis is only as valid as its data; therefore, it is crucial that data used for the completion of a life cycle analysis are accurate and current. When comparing different life cycle analyses with one another, it is crucial that equivalent data are available for both products or processes in question. If one product has a much higher availability of data, it cannot be justly compared to another product which has less detailed data.^[12]

There are two basic types of LCA data – unit process data and environmental input-output data (EIO), where the latter is based on national economic input-output data.^[13] Unit process data are derived from direct surveys of companies or plants producing the product of interest, carried out at a unit process level defined by the system boundaries for the study.

Data validity is an ongoing concern for life cycle analyses. Due to globalization and the rapid pace of research and development, new materials and manufacturing methods are continually being introduced to the market. This makes it both very important and very difficult to use up-to-date information when performing an LCA. If an LCA’s conclusions are to be valid, the data must be recent; however, the data-gathering process takes time. If a product and its related processes have not undergone significant revisions since the last LCA data was collected, data validity is not a problem. However, consumer electronics such as cell phones can be redesigned as often as every 9 to 12 months,^[14] creating a need for ongoing data collection.

The life cycle considered usually consists of a number of stages including: materials extraction, processing and manufacturing, product use, and product disposal. If the most environmentally harmful of these stages can be determined, then impact on the environment can be efficiently reduced by focusing on making changes for that particular phase. For example, the most energy-intensive life phase of an airplane or car is during use due to fuel consumption. One of the most effective ways to increase fuel efficiency is to decrease vehicle weight, and thus, car and airplane manufacturers can decrease environmental impact in a significant way by replacing aluminum with lighter materials such as carbon fiber reinforced fibers. The reduction during the use phase should be more than enough to balance additional raw material or manufacturing cost.

Variants

Cradle-to-grave

Cradle-to-grave is the full Life Cycle Assessment from resource extraction ('cradle') to use phase and disposal phase ('grave'). For example, trees produce paper, which can be recycled into low-energy production cellulose (fiberised paper) insulation, then used as an energy-saving device in the ceiling of a home for 40 years, saving 2,000 times the fossil-fuel energy used in its production. After 40 years the cellulose fibers are replaced and the old fibers are disposed of, possibly incinerated. All inputs and outputs are considered for all the phases of the life cycle.

Cradle-to-gate

Cradle-to-gate is an assessment of a partial product life cycle from resource extraction (cradle) to the factory gate (i.e., before it is transported to the consumer). The use phase and disposal phase of the product are omitted in this case. Cradle-to-gate assessments are sometimes the basis for environmental product declarations (EPD) termed business-to-business EDPs.^[15]

Cradle-to-cradle or open loop production

Cradle-to-cradle is a specific kind of cradle-to-grave assessment, where the end-of-life disposal step for the product is a recycling process. It is a method used to minimize the environmental impact of products by employing sustainable production, operation, and disposal practices and aims to incorporate social responsibility into product development.^[16] From the recycling process originate new, identical products (e.g., asphalt pavement from discarded asphalt pavement, glass bottles from collected glass bottles), or different products (e.g., glass wool insulation from collected glass bottles).

Allocation of burden for products in open loop production systems presents considerable challenges for LCA. Various methods, such as the avoided burden approach have been proposed to deal with the issues involved.

Gate-to-gate

Gate-to-gate is a partial LCA looking at only one value-added process in the entire production chain. Gate-to-gate modules may also later be linked in their appropriate production chain to form a complete cradle-to-gate evaluation.^[17]

Well-to-wheel

Well-to-wheel is the specific LCA used for transport fuels and vehicles. The analysis is often broken down into stages entitled "well-to-station", or "well-to-tank", and "station-to-wheel" or "tank-to-wheel", or "plug-to-wheel". The first stage, which incorporates the feedstock or fuel production and processing and fuel delivery or energy transmission, and is called the "upstream" stage, while the stage that deals with vehicle operation itself is sometimes called the "downstream" stage. The well-to-wheel analysis is commonly used to assess total energy consumption, or energy conversion efficiency and emissions impact of marine vessels, aircrafts and motor vehicle emissions, including their carbon footprint, and the fuels used in each of these transport modes.^[18][19][20]

The well-to-wheel variant has a significant input on a model developed by the Argonne National Laboratory. The Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model was developed to evaluate the impacts of new fuels and vehicle technologies. The model evaluates the impacts of fuel use using a well-to-wheel evaluation while a traditional cradle-to-grave approach is used to determine the impacts from the vehicle itself. The model reports energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and six additional pollutants: volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), particulate matter with size smaller than 10 micrometre (PM10), particulate matter with size smaller than 2.5 micrometre (PM2.5), and sulfur oxides (SOx).^[13]

Economic input–output life cycle assessment

Economic input–output LCA (EIOLCA) involves use of aggregate sector-level data on how much environmental impact can be attributed to each sector of the economy and how much each sector purchases from other sectors.^[21] Such analysis can account for long chains (for example, building an automobile requires energy, but producing energy requires vehicles, and building those vehicles requires energy, etc.), which somewhat alleviates the scoping problem of process LCA; however, EIOLCA relies on sector-level averages that may or may not be representative of the specific subset of the sector relevant to a particular product and therefore is not suitable for evaluating the environmental impacts of products. Additionally the translation of economic quantities into environmental impacts is not validated.^{[citation needed]}

Ecologically-based LCA

While a conventional LCA uses many of the same approaches and strategies as an Eco-LCA, the latter considers a much broader range of ecological impacts. It was designed to provide a guide to wise management of human activities by understanding the direct and indirect impacts on ecological resources and surrounding ecosystems. Developed by Ohio State University Center for resilience, Eco-LCA is a methodology that quantitatively takes into account regulating and supporting services during the life cycle of economic goods and products. In this approach services are categorized in four main groups: supporting, regulating provisioning and cultural services.^[9]

Life cycle energy analysis

Life cycle energy analysis (LCEA) is an approach in which all energy inputs to a product are accounted for, not only direct energy inputs during manufacture, but also all energy inputs needed to produce components, materials and services needed for the manufacturing process. An earlier term for the approach was energy analysis.

With LCEA, the total life cycle energy input is established.

Energy production

It is recognized that much energy is lost in the production of energy commodities themselves, such as nuclear energy, photovoltaic electricity or high-quality petroleum products. Net energy content is the energy content of the product minus energy input used during extraction and conversion, directly or indirectly. A controversial early result of LCEA claimed that manufacturing solar cells requires more energy than can be recovered in using the solar cell^{[citation needed]}. The result was refuted.^[22] Another new concept that flows from life cycle assessments is Energy Cannibalism. Energy Cannibalism refers to an effect where rapid growth of an entire energy-intensive industry creates a need for energy that uses (or cannibalizes) the energy of existing power plants. Thus during rapid growth the industry as a whole produces no energy because new energy is used to fuel the embodied energy of future power plants. Work has been undertaken in the UK to determine the life cycle energy (alongside full LCA) impacts of a number of renewable technologies.^[23][24]

Energy recovery

If materials are incinerated during the disposal process, the energy released during burning can be harnessed and used for electricity production. This provides a low-impact energy source, especially when compared with coal and natural gas^[25] While incineration produces more greenhouse gas emissions than landfilling, the waste plants are well-fitted with filters to minimize this negative impact. A recent study comparing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from landfilling (without energy recovery) against incineration (with energy recovery) found incineration to be superior in all cases except for when landfill gas is recovered for electricity production.^[26]

Criticism

A criticism of LCEA is that it attempts to eliminate monetary cost analysis, that is replace the currency by which economic decisions are made with an energy currency.^{[citation needed]} It has also been argued that energy efficiency is only one consideration in deciding which alternative process to employ, and that it should not be elevated to the only criterion for determining environmental acceptability; for example, simple energy analysis does not take into account the renewability of energy flows or the toxicity of waste products; however the life cycle assessment does help companies become more familiar with environmental properties and improve their environmental system.^[27] Incorporating Dynamic LCAs of renewable energy technologies (using sensitivity analyses to project future improvements in renewable systems and their share of the power grid) may help mitigate this criticism.^[28]

A problem the energy analysis method cannot resolve is that different energy forms (heat, electricity, chemical energy etc.) have different quality and value even in natural sciences, as a consequence of the two main laws of thermodynamics. A thermodynamic measure of the quality of energy is exergy. According to the first law of thermodynamics, all energy inputs should be accounted with equal weight, whereas by the second law diverse energy forms should be accounted by different values.

The conflict is resolved in one of these ways:

• value difference between energy inputs is ignored,
• a value ratio is arbitrarily assigned (e.g., a joule of electricity is 2.6 times more valuable than a joule of heat or fuel input),
• the analysis is supplemented by economic (monetary) cost analysis,
• exergy instead of energy can be the metric used for the life cycle analysis.^[29]

Critiques

Life cycle assessment is a powerful tool for analyzing commensurable aspects of quantifiable systems. Not every factor, however, can be reduced to a number and inserted into a model. Rigid system boundaries make accounting for changes in the system difficult. This is sometimes referred to as the boundary critique to systems thinking. The accuracy and availability of data can also contribute to inaccuracy. For instance, data from generic processes may be based on averages, unrepresentative sampling, or outdated results.^[30] Additionally, social implications of products are generally lacking in LCAs. Comparative life-cycle analysis is often used to determine a better process or product to use. However, because of aspects like differing system boundaries, different statistical information, different product uses, etc., these studies can easily be swayed in favor of one product or process over another in one study and the opposite in another study based on varying parameters and different available data.^[31] There are guidelines to help reduce such conflicts in results but the method still provides a lot of room for the researcher to decide what is important, how the product is typically manufactured, and how it is typically used.

An in-depth review of 13 LCA studies of wood and paper products^[32] found^[33] a lack of consistency in the methods and assumptions used to track carbon during the product life cycle. A wide variety of methods and assumptions were used, leading to different and potentially contrary conclusions – particularly with regard to carbon sequestration and methane generation in landfills and with carbon accounting during forest growth and product use.

The Agroecology tool "agroecosystem analysis" offers a framework to incorporate incommensurable aspects of the life cycle of a product (such as social impacts, and soil and water implications).^[34] This tool is specifically useful in the analysis of a product made from agricultural materials such as corn ethanol or soybean biodiesel because it can account for an ecology of contexts interacting and changing through time. This analysis tool should not be used instead of life-cycle analysis, but rather, in conjunction with life-cycle analysis to produce a well-rounded assessment.

Dynamic life cycle assessment

In recent years, the literature on life cycle assessment of energy technology has begun to reflect the interactions between the current electrical grid and future energy technology. Some papers have focused on energy life cycle,^[35][36][37] while others have focused on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.^[38] The essential critique given by these sources is that when considering energy technology, the growing nature of the power grid must be taken into consideration. If this is not done, a given class of energy technology may emit more carbon dioxide over its lifetime than it mitigates.