Monsoon hits Kerala, likely to cover entire country by mid-July: IMD forecast

Madhvi Sally, ET Bureau Jun 7, 2014, 02.23AM IST

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(The MeT department…)

NEW DELHI: On Friday morning, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, in line with its forecasts for the onset of the four-month rainy season that is vital to the Indian economy. However, the met department has warned of a below-average monsoon this year, which could pose a challenge to the new central government's attempts to resuscitate the economy.

"Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala today, dated June 6th. It has further advanced into most parts of south Arabian sea, Kerala and some parts of Tamil Nadu," said LS Rathore, director general of meteorology, India Meteorological Department.
The Maldives- Comorin areas, most parts of southwest Bay of Bengal and some parts of west central Bay of Bengal have also been covered by the monsoon. Rathore added, "We see a steady progress of monsoon in coastal parts and even northeastern states. The scenario does not look the same for central India."
In the next 24 hours, isolated heavy rainfall are expected to occur over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala and Lakshadweep. As per IMD, conditions were becoming favourable for further advance of monsoon into south and central Arabian sea, some parts of south Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days.
In the next 48 hours, the monsoon is expected to hit parts of north eastern states, where pre-monsoon rains have picked up. The southwest monsoon normally arrives in Kerala around June 1. It usually advances northwards in surges and covers the entire country by July 15.
Meteorologists state that it was unlikely that monsoon would cover the entire country by mid July. As per the met department forecast in April, the monsoon rainfall was likely to be 95 per cent of long period average (LPA) for the period June to September with average rainfall over India for June to September to be 89 cm.
Policy-makers have been waiting for the monsoon as much as the farmers this time round owing to forecasts that the June-September southwest monsoon - which is vital for about 60 per cent of India's farmland, mostly paddy - could be undermined by the warming of the southern Pacific Ocean, known as the El Nino effect.
The last few droughts in India (in 2002, 2004 and 2009) coincided with El Nino, particularly in 2009, when food inflation shot up to 20 per cent and has remained high since. Dealing with a below-average monsoon in the kharif cropping season will be top of the agenda for the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre.
Earlier this month, the IMD had forecast that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala on June 5, with a model error of plus or minus four days. The onset date last year was June 1 and in 2012 it was June 5.
Farming accounts for 14 per cent of the nearly $2 trillion Indian economy but it has a much larger direct or indirect impact on the well-being of people, particularly in rural areas.
Good rainfall boosts output and incomes in rural areas, which increases demand for gold, consumer goods, farm implements and automobiles. The agriculture ministry is already working overtime to prepare contingency plans and is encouraging states to be ready to adjust cropping patterns and choice of seeds depending on the availability of water. Indian farmers still have 15-30 days to plan for the sowing of kharif crops, largely paddy, soyabean, cotton, pulses and coarse cereals.