India plans to export more than half of its targeted 5 million metric tons (mt) of renewable hydrogen by 2030 from hubs in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Gujarat.

Pricing hurdles, policy shifts pose challenges to India’s green hydrogen ambitions

India plans to export more than half of its targeted 5 million metric tons (mt) of renewable hydrogen by 2030 from hubs in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Gujarat.

New Delhi: India's renewable hydrogen developers are aiming to establish green ammonia export opportunities by 2027, banking on cost advantages and offtake interest, despite uncertainties in the sector, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

India plans to export more than half of its targeted 5 million metric tons (mt) of renewable hydrogen by 2030 from hubs in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Gujarat. Large developers in these coastal states are in preparatory stages, working on front-end engineering designs and final investment decisions.

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Hydrogen Production Assets database indicates that India has nearly 143 renewable or low-carbon hydrogen projects, with a combined capacity of 10.55 million mt. The government’s National Green Hydrogen Mission, backed by an investment of Rs 197.44 billion ($2.37 billion), is driving the production of renewable hydrogen, electrolyzers, and hydrogen hubs.

Competitive position in global market

"India is one of the few countries to be able to produce very competitive green hydrogen, so it is very important for regions like Europe where they have particular mandates, which necessitates green hydrogen consumption," said Anri Nakamura, associate director at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"For the Far East markets, the story is a little bit different because the carbon intensity limit for both South Korea and Japan in terms of clean hydrogen is lenient and the threshold can be met by blue hydrogen/ammonia from other parts of the world, which may be more competitive than Indian green hydrogen/ammonia," 

Pricing and market challenges

Despite the push for green hydrogen, market pricing remains a concern. Market indications on Platts Market Heards suggest that while renewable hydrogen costs in India were reported above $5/kg, the willingness to pay from refineries and fertilizer manufacturers remained below $4/kg.

For renewable ammonia, Indian fertilizer companies imported conventional ammonia at an average price of $398/mt in 2024, while the offered price for renewable ammonia remained around $800/mt on an FOB basis.

In comparison, Platts assessed Queensland hydrogen produced via alkaline electrolysis at $4.32/kg on March 12, down 16.44% from a month ago. Japan hydrogen produced via alkaline electrolysis was assessed at $5.44/kg, down 19% over the same period.

Uncertainty in global hydrogen policy

Observers are closely watching for Indian projects to move into the construction phase amid global policy changes. The sector faces uncertainties due to the US' policy shift under President Donald Trump, Europe’s industrial costs crisis, and the under-subscription of a hydrogen-to-power tender in South Korea late last year.

Despite these challenges, India’s renewable hydrogen developers are focusing on expanding exports, with expectations that cost competitiveness and policy incentives will drive adoption in the coming years.