Futuristic Energy Scenerios

Futuristic Energy Scenerios

                                                                 

The Planning Commission has developed, the “India Energy Security Scenarios 2047”(IESS-2047), an Excel based web tool which explores a range of potential future energy scenarios for India, for several energy demand and supply sectors leading up to 2047. In a statement in reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha today, the Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Planning, Statistics and Programme Implementation and Defence Shri Rao Inderjit Singh has said that this tool is available to the public through an interactive, web interface as well as an Excel-based model with extensive sector-wise documentation. It is hosted on the website of the Planning Commission.

The IESS 2047 explores India’s energy future across energy supply sectors such as solar, wind, biofuels, oil, gas, coal, and nuclear, and energy demand sectors such as transport, industry, agriculture, cooking, and lighting and appliances. The model allows users to interactively make energy choices, and explore a range of possible outcomes for the country – from carbon dioxide emissions and import dependence to land-use. The details of various scenarios developed are projected in terms of four levels as:-

Level-1: Least Effort Scenario

The ‘Least Effort’ scenario in the demand sector (Level 1) offers projections assuming past trends continue. Similarly, in supply sectors, the ‘Least Effort’ scenario (Level 1) is of poor domestic output of energy, and is likely to follow the past trends, should there not be any major policy announcement, or any other trigger in generating energy supply. 

Level 2, the ‘Determined Effort’ scenario

Level 2, the ‘Determined Effort’ scenario describes the level of effort which is deemed most achievable by the implementation of current policies and programmes of the government. This scenario indicates that existing and committed policies maintain the same trend in future also.

Level 3, the ‘Aggressive Effort scenario

Level 3, the ‘Aggressive Effort’ scenario describes the level of effort needing significant change which is hard but deliverable.

Level 4, the `Heroic Effort` scenario

Level 4, the `Heroic Effort` scenario describes the level of effort equivalent to the `world`s best` scenario which has been realised in some countries. On the demand side, the `Heroic Effort` scenario, (Level 4) indicates heightened efficiency numbers, leading up to the physically best attainable in due course.  On the other hand, on the supply side, the `Heroic Effort` scenario gives us the physical limits, which would guide the growth of that particular energy supply up to the year 2047. 

There are also projections on the demand side and the consumption side in various sectors for the least effort and the heroic effort made by us as:-

Units in are in Tera Watt hours

Demand
Sector	Baseline 2012	`Least Effort` Scenario (2047)	`Herioc Effort` Scenario (2047)
Domestic Lighting & appliances	169.7	2,204.5	1,121.4
Commercial Lighting & Appliances	69.8	970.6	761.6
Lighting & Appliances	239.5	3,174.6	1,805.9
Industry	2,278.8	11,326.4	7,960.7
Road transport	787.1	5,691.6	2,790.6
Rail transport	40.5	128.8	125.8
Domestic aviation	20.3	264.9	118.6
Transport	847.9	6,085.3	3,035.0
Green Building Design & Envelope Savings	(0.0)	(0.4)	(77.1)
Agriculture	237.2	1,047.8	533.1
Telecom	82.7	237.0	101.0
Household Cooking	1,153.7	1,069.2	616.0
Commercial Cooking	64.8	739.0	680.4
Cooking	1,218.5	1,808.2	1,296.5
Total	4,905	23,679	14,732

Supply

Sector	Baseline (2012)	`Least Effort` Scenario (2047)	`Heroic Effort` Scenario (2047)
Nuclear fission	94	168	990
Solar	2	107	1,663
Wind	19	161	1,462
Hydro	156	207	641
Bioenergy	959	993	3045
Coal reserves	2,704	2,878	7,306
Oil reserves	443	401	907
Gas reserves	449	769	2,115

According to the statement the IESS-2047 calculator launched in February, 2014 by Planning Commission, doesn’t include the cost parameter in various scenarios.

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KSP