Oman, Pakistan, India on Alert for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar

Oman, Pakistan, India on Alert for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

October 28, 2014; 4:58 AM ET

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar developed on Saturday in the middle of the Arabian Sea and will bring impacts to parts of Oman, Pakistan and India this week.
The combination of warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will allow for some further strengthening through late Tuesday and Wednesday. Nilofar has already reached an intensity which is the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane.
Nilofar will continue on a northwest track through Tuesday before taking a turn toward the north and then east-northeast during the middle and latter part of the week. Nilofar's projected turn toward the north and northeast will keep the center of the cyclone east of Oman with only the outer fringes of the storm bringing gusty winds and downpours to the far eastern part of the country.

While the threat for widespread damaging winds and flooding is reduced in Oman, any thunderstorm from Nilofar can produce locally damaging winds and heavy rain.
Even though Nilofar will pass east of Oman, dangerous rip currents and rough surf will affect the coast through much of the upcoming week.
The above satellite picture shows Nilofar spinning over the Arabian Sea early Tuesday, local time. The image is courtesy of the Space Science and Engineering Center at University of Wisconsin-Madison
Beyond Thursday, Nilofar will get steered to the east-northeast across the northern Arabian Sea toward the coasts of southeastern Pakistan and the Indian province of Gujarat by the end of the week.
Landfall is expected on Friday, local time near the border of Pakistan and India. Interaction with increased wind shear and dry continental air from Asia will cause the cyclone to weaken as it approaches Pakistan and India, and it will likely be the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.
Even though weakening is expected prior to landfall, coastal flooding, damaging winds and life-threatening flooding due to heavy rain will be a concern Friday into Saturday as Nilofar moves inland across southeast Pakistan and northwest India.