10 June 2013
Warning that the world is not on track to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) today urged governments to swiftly enact four energy policies
that would keep climate goals alive without harming economic growth.
“Climate
change has quite frankly slipped to the back burner of policy
priorities. But the problem is not going away – quite the opposite,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in London at the launch of a World Energy Outlook Special Report, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, which highlights the need for intensive action before 2020.
Noting
that the energy sector accounts for around two-thirds of global
greenhouse-gas emissions, she added: “This report shows that the path we
are currently on is more likely to result in a temperature increase of
between 3.6 °C and 5.3 °C but also finds that much more can be done to
tackle energy-sector emissions without jeopardising economic growth, an
important concern for many governments.”
New estimates for global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions in 2012 reveal a 1.4% increase, reaching a record high of
31.6 gigatonnes (Gt), but also mask significant regional differences. In
the United States, a switch from coal to gas in power generation helped
reduce emissions by 200 million tonnes (Mt), bringing them back to the
level of the mid‑1990s. China experienced the largest growth in CO2
emissions (300 Mt), but the increase was one of the lowest it has seen
in a decade, driven by the deployment of renewables and improvements in
energy intensity. Despite increased coal use in some countries,
emissions in Europe declined by 50 Mt. Emissions in Japan increased by
70 Mt.
The
new IEA report presents the results of a 4-for-2 °C Scenario, in which
four energy policies are selected that can deliver significant emissions
reductions by 2020, rely only on existing technologies and have already
been adopted successfully in several countries.
“We
identify a set of proven measures that could stop the growth in global
energy-related emissions by the end of this decade at no net economic
cost,” said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol, the report’s lead author.
“Rapid and widespread adoption could act as a bridge to further action,
buying precious time while international climate negotiations continue.”
In the 4-for-2°C Scenario, global energy-related greenhouse-gas emissions are 8% (3.1 Gt CO2‑equivalent) lower in 2020 than the level otherwise expected.
- Targeted energy efficiency measures in buildings, industry and transport account for nearly half the emissions reduction in 2020, with the additional investment required being more than offset by reduced spending on fuel bills.
- Limiting the construction and use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants delivers more than 20% of the emissions reduction and helps curb local air pollution. The share of power generation from renewables increases (from around 20% today to 27% in 2020), as does that from natural gas.
- Actions to halve expected methane (a potent greenhouse gas) releases into the atmosphere from the upstream oil and gas industry in 2020 provide 18% of the savings.
- Implementing a partial phase-out of fossil fuel consumption subsidies accounts for 12% of the reduction in emissions and supports efficiency efforts.
The
report also finds that the energy sector is not immune from the
physical impacts of climate change and must adapt. In mapping
energy-system vulnerabilities, it identifies several sudden and
destructive impacts, caused by extreme weather events, and other more
gradual impacts, caused by changes to average temperature, sea level
rise and shifting weather patterns. To improve the climate resilience of
the energy system, it highlights governments’ role in encouraging
prudent adaptation (alongside mitigation) and the need for industry to
assess the risks and impacts as part of its investment decisions.
The
financial implications of climate policies that would put the world on a
2 °C trajectory are not uniform across the energy sector. Net revenues
for existing renewables-based and nuclear power plants increase by $1.8
trillion (in year-2011 dollars) collectively through to 2035, offsetting
a similar decline from coal plants. No oil or gas field currently in
production would need to shut down prematurely. Some fields yet to start
production are not developed before 2035, meaning that around 5% to 6%
of proven oil and gas reserves do not start to recover their exploration
costs. Delaying the move to a 2 °C trajectory until 2020 would result
in substantial additional costs to the energy sector and increase the
risk of assets needing to be retired early, idled or retrofitted. Carbon
capture and storage (CCS) can act as an asset protection strategy,
reducing the risk of stranded assets and enabling more fossil fuel to be
commercialised.
About the IEA
The International
Energy Agency is an autonomous organisation which works to ensure
reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and
beyond. Founded in response to the 1973/4 oil crisis, the IEA’s initial
role was to help countries co-ordinate a collective response to major
disruptions in oil supply through the release of emergency oil stocks to
the markets. While this continues to be a key aspect of its work, the
IEA has evolved and expanded. It is at the heart of global dialogue on
energy, providing reliable and unbiased research, statistics, analysis
and recommendations.
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