Weather Forecast Accuracy
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) generates district level
weather forecast for the next five days and based on this forecast, the
Agromet Advisories are prepared and communicated to the farming
community. Research efforts are initiated to explore possibility of
generating sub-district scale Agrometeorological forecast with
acceptable level of verification skill in a pilot mode.
As a part of on-going process, performance of district level weather
forecast issued for different districts in the country is verified
against observed weather for last 12 months. It has been observed that
the forecast accuracy is very good in East and Central regions and
modest in Northwest, West and South India. The forecast is not up to the
desired expectation for Northeast region, for hilly regions as well as
for high rainfall events.
The accuracy of the weather forecast is more than 80% qualitatively and
65-70 quantitatively for various regions in the country.
New High Performance Computing (HPC) systems is utilized for
implementing new variants of the forecast models so as to improve the
forecast skills further.
Further, under the National Monsoon Mission initiative, other
institutions of ESSO, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
(IITM), Pune, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services
(INCOIS), Hyderabad and National Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting (NCMRWF), NOIDA have embarked upon, to build a
state-of-the-art coupled ocean atmospheric climate model for
a) improved prediction of monsoon rainfall on extended range to seasonal time scale (16 days to one season) and
b) improved prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather
events on short to medium range time scale (up to 15 days) so that
forecast skill gets quantitatively improved further for operational
services of IMD.
This was stated by Minister of State for Ministry of Science &
Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Y.S.Chowdary, in a written reply to a
Question in Lok Sabha today.
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RDS/SS
(Release ID :147386)
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