The India Meteorological
Department
(IMD) has released
the latest data on the rainfall during June-July of 2016. This year the
Southwest monsoon rainfall was 11% below the Long Period
Average (LPA) during June,
however, July rainfall has been 7% above the LPA.
A north-south belt
comprising of the States and Meteorological sub divisions such as West Uttar
Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya
Maharashtra, North interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have received
wide spread and excess rainfall during July 2016. It has
completely wiped out the 11% deficiency of June
rainfall as the cumulative rainfall for the first half of the monsoon season (June-July) is normal
with 0%
departure
from the LPA. The rainfall statistics are given in the
following table:
|
Regions
|
01 June-30 June
|
01 July-31 July
|
01 June-31 July
|
|
% Dep. from LPA
|
% Dep. from LPA
|
% Dep. from LPA
|
|
Country
as a whole
|
-11%
|
7%
|
0%
|
|
Northwest
India
|
-7%
|
9%
|
6%
|
|
Central
India
|
-17%
|
18%
|
6%
|
|
South
Peninsula
|
26%
|
-12%
|
4%
|
|
East
& Northeast India
|
-28%
|
-2%
|
-13%
|
According to IMD data,
out of the last 46 years since 1970, July month rainfall was below 100% of LPA during
34 years.
During
last 10 years, 2016 is the only year after 2013 and 2010, when July month
rainfall has been above 100% of LPA. The rainfall data of the
month of July for last 46 years is given below: -
|
|
|
Year
|
July
|
Year
|
July
|
|
1970
|
-16
|
1993
|
-4.5
|
|
1971
|
-9.7
|
1994
|
20.8
|
|
1972
|
-31.2
|
1995
|
3.5
|
|
1973
|
-03
|
1996
|
-7.3
|
|
1974
|
-4.4
|
1997
|
-1.6
|
|
1975
|
06
|
1998
|
-2.1
|
|
1976
|
-0.9
|
1999
|
-8.8
|
|
1977
|
13.2
|
2000
|
-7.7
|
|
1978
|
1.7
|
2001
|
-4.8
|
|
1979
|
-16
|
2002
|
-54.2
|
|
1980
|
01
|
2003
|
6.5
|
|
1981
|
6.5
|
2004
|
-19.9
|
|
1982
|
-23.1
|
2005
|
14.7
|
|
1983
|
-4.3
|
2006
|
-02
|
|
1984
|
-7.9
|
2007
|
-2.4
|
|
1985
|
-5.6
|
2008
|
-16.5
|
|
1986
|
-14.2
|
2009
|
-4.3
|
|
1987
|
-28.8
|
2010
|
2.8
|
|
1988
|
26.6
|
2011
|
-14.9
|
|
1989
|
5.1
|
2012
|
-13.4
|
|
1990
|
-4.1
|
2013
|
7.3
|
|
1991
|
-8.7
|
2014
|
-9.6
|
|
1991
|
-8.7
|
2015
|
-16.4
|
|
1992
|
-19.1
|
2016
|
6.6
|
Forecast for
second half (August-September) of 2016 monsoon: -
(a) Rainfall over the country as a
whole during second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September) is most likely to be above
normal (>106% of LPA) with a probability of 55%.
(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall
for the country as a whole during second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(c) The rainfall during August is
likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a
whole is likely to be 106% ±4% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
******
RM/VM
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