Powerful Hurricane Patricia Bears Down on Mexico With Catastrophic Force

Powerful Hurricane Patricia Bears Down on Mexico With Catastrophic Force

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

October 23, 2015; 9:04 PM ET

Despite being past its peak and record-breaking intensity, Patricia remains a dangerous hurricane as it slams into southwestern Mexico with catastrophic force into Friday night.
Hurricane Patricia made landfall at approximately 6:15 p.m. CDT Friday along the coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala, Mexico, around 55 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Patricia Remains a Beast in the Eastern Pacific

Patricia became the strongest hurricane on record, passing both Linda in the eastern Pacific and Wilma in the Atlantic, on Friday.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Becky Elliott, "Patricia rapidly intensified from a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph early Thursday to a 200-mph Category 5 hurricane 24 hours later." The central pressure of the storm dropped 100 mb during this time.

In advance of the storm, officials declared a state of emergency in dozens of municipalities in the Mexican states of Colima, Nayarti and Jalisco according to the Associated Press. The governor of Colima also ordered that schools be closed on Friday.
A Category 1 hurricane moving ashore is dangerous enough, but a Category 5 storm is an entirely different matter. This escalates the amount of rain, wind and catastrophic damage to hit the area.

"Areas along the coast can anticipate life-threatening flooding and storm surge along with destructive winds," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.
With a forecast path to the west of Manzanillo, storm surge will also be a concern for the city and other locations to the east and south of Patricia's landfall. High winds from the south will funnel a great deal of water into any bays and channels as the center moves inland causing dangerous flooding.
"Manzanillo sits right in the center of a bay," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller explains. "Even though much of the city is not situated right on the beach, a significant storm surge of 6 to 8 meters (20 to 25 feet) is likely."

Rainfall of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) will be common Colima, western Jalisco and southern Nayarit. Over 600 mm (24 inches) are possible, especially over the higher terrain.
Although Patricia reached the coastline as a dangerous hurricane, significant weakening is expected once the center of the storm moves inland.
"After battering the coast, Patricia will need to move over the Sierra Madre del Sur Mountains to continue northward," Travis added. "Trying to cross the mountains will weaken the system fairly quickly."
In addition to these mountains that are just inland across southern Jalisco, there will be more rugged terrain to cross as the system moves farther inland.
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"The system will end up over a spot where the Sierra Madre del Sur Mountains collide with the Sierra Madre Occidentals and the Trans Volcanic Belt," Miller said. "So it will be hard for Patricia to hold onto its strength."
Even though the tropical feature will be shredded apart by the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, moisture will be pulled northward and will bring the threat for flooding to northeastern Mexico this weekend.
Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara are also at risk for flooding downpours into the weekend as the tropical system moves in between the two cities.
"The heaviest rain will likely stay to the west of Guadalajara, but the city could still get as much as 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches) of rain," Miller added.
The most recent satellite imagery of Patricia spinning in the Eastern Pacific (NOAA/Satellite).
While Mexico City may miss the heaviest rainfall, daily thunderstorms are possible through this weekend with downpours capable of producing localized flash flooding.
Heavy rain across the mountainous regions in central and southwestern Mexico could lead to widespread flash flooding and mudslides. A front across part of the United States will start to pick up Patricia's moisture and quickly sweep it up to northeastern Mexico through the weekend. The steadiest rain is expected to reach the cities of Saltillo and Monterrey by Saturday.
As this tropical moisture continues to be pulled northward, the front will combine with Patricia's moisture to create an elevated threat for flooding in Texas and Louisiana.
Patricia became the strongest hurricane on record Friday morning. The estimated central pressure of Patricia dropped to 879 mb, breaking the record of 894 mb from Hurricane Linda in the eastern Pacific set in 1997 and also surpassing the 882 mb pressure of Hurricane Wilma in the Atlantic from 2005.
The maximum sustained winds of 200 mph (160 knots) breaks the previous wind speed record from Linda and Wilma (185 mph) for the strongest surface winds ever in the area of responsibility of the National Hurricane Center.
Patricia was only the second category 5 hurricane to originate in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and make landfall in Mexico. The other was an unnamed hurricane in 1959 that also made landfall near Manzanillo.
While Patricia is the strongest hurricane and tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere, Typhoon Tip and several other Western Pacific typhoons obtained a lower central pressure.