Ministry of Earth Sciences Commissions Higher Resolution Weather Prediction Model
The
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) has commissioned a very high
resolution (12 km) global deterministic weather prediction model for
generating operational weather forecasts. The model has been on trial
since September 2016. It has shown significant improvements in skill of
daily weather forecasts. This model has been made operational from
January 16, 2017.
The present model replaces the earlier version which had a horizontal resolution of 25 km. It was very helpful, especially in predicting the track and the intensity of the recent Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Vardah and the cold wave over the northern parts of India.
MoES’s
operational Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) will also be upgraded to
12 km. For this the High Performance Computing (HPC) system resources
available with MoES is to be augmented to 10 Peta Flops from the current
1.2 Peta Flops. The operational EPS currently has a horizontal
resolution of about 25 km.
The EPS is adopted to overcome
the problem of uncertainties in the forecasts. It involves the
generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial
conditions. The EPS also help generate probabilistic forecasts and
quantify the uncertainties.
The
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) provides Weather, Climate and
Hydrological Services to various users round the year and 24/7. Both
operational and research aspects for these services are implemented
through its constituent units India Meteorological Department (IMD),
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Indian
Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and Indian National Centre for
Ocean Information System (INCOIS).
In
general, during the last five years, the skill of weather and climate
forecasts in India has improved. The improvement is noted especially in
general public weather forecasts, monsoon forecasts, heavy rainfall
warnings and tropical cyclone warnings and alerts. The successes in
predicting the Tropical Cyclones Phailin/Hudhud, heavy rainfall
event in Chennai during December 2015, deficient rainfall during monsoon
season of 2015 are the best examples for the improvement in prediction
capability during the recent years.
Focused
research and development activities have been carried out at IITM,
NCMRWF and IMD on weather prediction model development and data
assimilation methods. Data from the International and Indian satellites
are being assimilated in the weather prediction models.
The
communication of forecasts to the stake holders on time and in proper
language is very important in the effective use of weather and climate
forecasts and minimizing the loss and damages due to severe weather. IMD
has established an effective mechanism for dissemination of weather and
climate forecasts to different stake holders using different
communication channels.
RDS/ss
(Release ID :157373)
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