Weather Prediction in the Country

Weather Prediction in the Country

            The Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO)-India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi which is the national agency for issuing long range forecast for the country had predicted that the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

            The Minister of State for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Shri Y. S. Chowdary giving this information in written reply in Lok Sabha today said that this is the first stage of forecast issued on 22^nd April, 2015. He said the five (5) category probability forecasts given by the IMD for June to September rainfall over the country are as below:

Category	Rainfall Range (% of LPA)	Forecast Probability (%)	Climatological Probability (%)
Deficient	< 90	33	16
Below Normal	90 - 96	35	17
Normal	96 -104	28	33
Above Normal	104 -110	3	16
Excess	> 110	1	17

            Seasonal forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages by the IMD. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.  Along with the update forecast, separate forecasts for the month (July and August) rainfall over the country as a whole and seasonal (June-September) rainfall over the four geographical regions of India will also be issued by the ESSO-IMD in June, 2015.

            The Minister said that various research Institutions in the country engaged in forecast/ research on monsoon as given below. 

Sl. No.	Institution
1	Earth System Science Organisation (ESSO)-India Meteorological Department(IMD), New Delhi
2	ESSO-Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
3	ESSO-National centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting(NCMRWF) ,NOIDA
4	Indian Space Research Organisation-Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad
5	Council of Scientific and Industrial Research-FOURTH PARADIGM INSTITUTE, BENGALURU
6	Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar
7	Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
8	Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhi Nagar
9	Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay
10	Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi
11	Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
12	Andhra University
13	Cochin University
14	University of Pune
15	Centre for Disaster Mitigation, Jain University, Bangalore
16	Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune
17	Skymet weather wise

Shri Chowdary also informed the House that forecasts made by some of these organizations are as follows:

Sl No.	Institution	Forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country as whole (% of Long Period Average)
1	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune	91% ± 5%
2	Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad	100%
3	Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar	98%
4	Centre for Disaster Mitigation, Jain University, Bangalore	113% ± 5%
5	Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune	84%
6	Skymet weather wise	102%

            The Minister said through Indo-US collaboration, a “Monsoon Desk” has been set up for working jointly for improving seasonal forecast of Indian monsoon rainfall. Through this forum, Indian and US Scientists are exchanging their ideas and sharing their expertise. This effort has led to appreciable improvements in the efficiency of models in making better and better forecasts, he added.