An early monsoon in India, while offering benefits like boosted agricultural production and water security, can also lead to challenges like intense rainfall, potential flooding, and disruptions in areas unprepared for early rains.

 An early monsoon in India, while offering benefits like boosted agricultural production and water security, can also lead to challenges like intense rainfall, potential flooding, and disruptions in areas unprepared for early rains. The early onset can be attributed to factors like the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moving north sooner than usual. 

Benefits:

Boosted Agriculture:

An early monsoon can provide more time for farmers to prepare for sowing, leading to improved soil moisture and potentially higher crop yields, especially in southern and central India. 

Water Security:

Early rains can help replenish water sources, potentially easing concerns about water scarcity and improving power generation from hydroelectricity plants. 

Challenges:

Extreme Rainfall and Flooding:

Early monsoons can bring intense rainfall events, potentially leading to flooding in areas unprepared for such early and heavy downpours. 

Disruptions:

The sudden and early onset of monsoon can disrupt daily life and infrastructure in areas not yet prepared for the rainy season. 

Increased Vulnerability:

Landslide-prone and coastal areas may face heightened risks due to the increased rainfall and potential for coastal erosion. 

Factors Contributing to Early Onset:

Warming Trends in the Arabian Sea:

Experts suggest that warming trends in the Arabian Sea may be contributing to the early monsoon onset and increased intensity. 

ITCZ Movement:

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is the belt of low pressure around the equator where the trade winds of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet. The early movement of the ITCZ north can trigger the monsoon's early arrival. 

Satellite Observations:

Satellite-derived Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) values below 200 Watts per square meter, along with other criteria, are used to confirm the monsoon onset over Kerala. 

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/monsoonfaq.pdf, the monsoon onset is declared on the second day of observations when all criteria are fulfilled.