Forecast for above Normal Monsoon Rainfall

Ministry of Earth Science05-May, 2016 11:13 IST

Forecast for above Normal Monsoon Rainfall

During the current year (2016), normal/ above normal rainfall has been predicted by many forecasting agencies including India Meteorological Department (IMD).

IMD’s Operational Long Range Forecast (LRF) for the 2016 Southwest monsoon rainfall is as follows:

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

The details of Monsoon rainfall (2016) predicted, agency-wise is presented in Annexure-I. These forecasts suggest normal to above normal rainfall during 2016 monsoon season.

Normal onset date of Monsoon over Kerala (southern tip of mainland India) is 01 June. The forecast for monsoon onset will be issued on 15^th May, 2016. In India Met Department monsoon covers the whole country by 15^th July climatologically.

Annexure-I

Forecasts for 2016 southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole received from some of the private forecasting agencies and several foreign agencies.

S.No.	Institutes		Forecast
1	Skymet		105% (with an error margin of ±4%)
2	Weather Risk Management Services		Roughly more than 104% in most parts of the country, except the northeast and  with well-distributed rainfall over the country
3	Onkari Prasad (Retired IMD)		100%
4	Center for Disaster Mitigation Jain University, Bangalore		98.2% ± 5.52%
5	ECMWF,UK	Coupled Model	Above Normal rainfall is most likely over some parts of Northwest India and some parts of southeastern Peninsular India. Normal rainfall is most likely over most of the remaining parts of the country.
		EUROSIP Multi Model Ensemble (MME): 3 Coupled Models	Normal rainfall over most parts of the country
6	International research Institute for climate and Society, USA		Climatological probabilities for most parts of the country except northern parts of the country where below normal is most likely.
7	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)		Negative rainfall anomalies over northern parts of the country, central India and most parts of west coast. Positive rainfall anomalies are predicted over remaining areas with highest magnitudes over northeast India.
8	APEC Climate Center		Normal rainfall is most likely over east and northeast India. Above normal is most likely over remaining parts of the country.
9	Met Office, UK		Above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country.

This was stated by the Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Y.S.Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha today.

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          RDS/ss

(Release ID :144940)
 

Ministry of Earth Science05-May, 2016 11:10 IST

Forecast of Monsoon Rainfall

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5% (101-111%). The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

Although the last decade has seen several years of drought or near drought conditions, it is difficult to infer that the low rainfall phase is drawing to a close. However, statistical interpretation of inter decadal rainfall variability indicates likely gradual end of the lower rainfall phase that is yet to be realized so far.

There is a 94% probability that India is set for a normal to above normal monsoon during 2016.

Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season (June – September) rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. The main highlights of the 1st stage forecast are as follows:

• Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be above normal (104-110% of LPA).

• Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average with a model error of ± 5%.

• There is 94% probability that the monsoon 2016 rainfall would be normal to excess (96% and above of LPA).

• There is only 1% probability that the monsoon 2016 rainfall would be deficient (less than 90% of LPA).

This was stated by the Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences, Shri Y.S.Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha today.

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RDS/ss
(Release ID :144939)