IMD will
issue the updated monsoon forecast by the first week of June 2016 based on the
operational model and with the updated data upto May 2016.
Climatologically monsoon is expected to reach South
Kerala by 31st May. The forecast for the 2016 monsoon onset date
will be issued on 15th May, 2016.
Monsoon onset over Kerala follows the monsoon
advancement over the Andaman Sea that climatologically falls around 20th
May. So as to account for the Monsoon advancement over Andaman Sea, the monsoon
onset forecast over Kerala is issued around middle of May annually.
Although,
Potsdam institute for Climate
Impact Research, Germany has claimed a novel method to forecast monsoon onset
over the Eastern Ghats (North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Southern
Odisha) and monsoon withdrawal from North Pakistan only, the methodology
adopted has some limitations and uncertainty. At the same time, the respective
withdrawal predictions have shown reduced skill during recent 2010-2014 period.
As the methodology has not been tested for monsoon onset over the South Kerala,
no tangible gain is expected for our operational onset monsoon forecast.
However,
IMD issues the monsoon onset forecast based on an indigenously developed model.
The forecasts for monsoon onset for last 10 years have been found correct.
The monsoon forecast during last
three years was as under;
Year
|
Forecast
|
Actual (% of LPA)
|
Issued in April
|
Issued in June
|
2013
|
98 % of LPA ± 5
|
98 % of LPA ± 4
|
106
|
2014
|
95 % of LPA ± 5
|
93 % of LPA ± 4
|
88
|
2015
|
93% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%
|
88% of LPA ±4%
|
86
|
The forecast for monsoon during
2014 & 2015 were correct. However during 2013, the monsoon forecast issued
by India Meteorological Department (IMD) was marginally under estimated. It may
be mentioned here that both 2014 & 2015 were deficient monsoon years.
This
was stated by the Minister of State for Science & Technology and Earth
Sciences, Shri Y.S.Chowdary in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha
today.
*****
RDS/ss
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