Air Plume
Model Predictive Plot Checklists
Use the checklists below to help you assess the utility of
an air plume model “predictive plot” in supporting decision-making in
responding to a release of air toxics. Start
by using the first checklist to help you examine the plot carefully and do a
"quality assurance" check. If
you have additional time and access to individuals who can help you answer the
questions (e.g., experts who ran the model and developed your plot), continue
with the second checklist to help you understand more about the model and the
assumptions used to produce the plot.
As you use these checklists, keep in mind the overarching
question you are trying to answer: Does the plot have enough detail to support
the decisions I need to make?
Checklist 1. Examine the plot carefully (Quality Assurance)
Factors
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Questions to Consider
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1) Key locations |
·
Are important locations (schools, hospitals,
roads) clearly identified on the plot?
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2) Interpreting the Plot
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·
What do the different color schemes mean? Is
there a key/legend?
·
What do the different shaded areas mean in
term of their impact on human health (e.g., are they dose or concentration
levels)?
·
For radiation releases: How do these levels
differ from normal background levels?
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3) Time frame
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·
How long ago was the plot generated? Does it still provide a valid picture of
the release?
·
Is the map a forecast of the total cumulative
effects of the release, or does it represent a snapshot in time?
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4) Field measurements |
·
Are there any field measurements from the area
(e.g., from survey teams or aerial flights) on the plot?
·
Are the reports from the field consistent with
your plot?
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5) Released material
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·
Was the release a one time “puff” (a minute or
less) or did the release continue. If
so for how long (e.g., minutes, hours)?
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Checklist 2. Understand the inputs and capabilities of the
computer model that produced the plot
Additional
Factors
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Questions to Consider
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1) Inputs and Assumptions
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How was the
material in the release identified (e.g., knowledge of the material onsite at
a facility, real-time monitoring)? Has the accuracy of the material released
been confirmed?
·
How was the
amount of material released determined? Has the accuracy been confirmed? If the release amount is an estimate, is it
a best case or worst case estimate?
·
What was the
height of the release? Has this been included as an input to the model?
·
Do you have any
information from witnesses at or near the scene? For example, if there a visible smoke
plume, which direction is it blowing?
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2) Meteorology
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Where did the
weather data used in the predictive plot get collected relative to the
release location?
·
How variable is
the meteorology (i.e. gusty, or no wind at all)? Is this reflected in the predictive
plot?
·
Is rain
predicted in next 24/48 hours?
·
How does the
weather/wind interact with the terrain?
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Is possible
upwind dispersal being taken into account and reflected in the map?
·
Has an expert
been consulted on meteorology?
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3) Model Capabilities
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What is it able
to model (e.g. single chemical, multiple chemicals such as petrochemicals,
radiation, fire or explosions)?
·
Is the model
able to use real-world meteorological data?
Does the model incorporate upper air winds in addition to ground level
winds?
·
How far
downwind is the model capable of making predictions for? Are there any other limitations of the
model to be aware of?
·
Does the model
take local topography (hills, buildings, trees) into account? Can it model
complex urban environments?
·
How far above
ground level is the release? Is the
release part of an explosion or fire (which can transport toxic materials
higher into the atmosphere)? Is the model able to accommodate these factors?
·
What height is
the plot for (e.g., ground level or above)?
·
Has the expert who
provided your predictive plot been consulted?
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